Walgreens Boots Alliance: Asymmetric Opportunity Amid Market Dislocation

We initiate on WBA at Strong Buy w/ a $37 PT. Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. is a global retail

pharmacy leader with nearly 13,000 stores across the U.S., and internationally, anchored by specialty pharmacy and wholesale operations as the nursery to the revenue tree. Scale benefits and distribution reach buoy relevance as the U.S. pharmacy landscape is contorted by reimbursement cuts & store closures accelerating; the dislocation between pervasive market negativity and embedded optionality has become too wide to ignore—a hazy near-term structural 'headwinds' narrative muddies the cash flow bull's back, yet our diligence unearths margin durability & long-term catalysts quietly building. Despite our conservatively modeled top-line outlook (1.2% FY26E growth, with segmental modeling 'discounting' our views on U.S. pharmacy volumes vs. Street, savage re-shoring & Boldbent closures), the resultant valuation case becomes stark: a 0.4x forward EV / Sales multiple (that captures the brutish unfavorable comps, persistent U.S. reimbursement headwinds, execution risk, and muted U.S. retail comps, but buffered by 5% Boots UK growth, robust wholesale growth from Germany, and the mid-teens growing U.S. 'Health') insinuates a mere $31.8bn equity value vs. today's deeply-oppressed market cap. The negativity-tone and Sycamore takeout floor vs. the current dislocation tie to a direct comp set that are most comparable to the current dislocation—the most direct comp set to market sentiment and the Sycamore takeout floor, the recent Executive Chairman Pessina's insider buying behavior; the negativity-tone and Sycamore takeout floor vs. the current dislocation tie to a direct comp set that are most comparable to the current dislocation—the most