Energy Fuels: Uranium Margin Advantage

We initiate coverage of UUUU with a Strong Buy rating and $13 PT. UUUU is the leading vertically

integrated U.S. uranium producer, with processing capability across vanadium and rare earths. Three converging forces support this thesis: a new global nuclear paradigm, a supply/demand dislocation of generational proportion, and Washington’s rising domestic mandate. The Street consensus only factors in deferred rare earth and heavy minerals volume; UUUU already monetizes a unique counter- cyclical position as the owner of the only operating commercial uranium mill in the U.S. and a pipeline of fully owned quality assets, enabling a show-me-the-value approach to volume allocation and margin capture even before the next cycle. Our FY25E/26E revenues of $38.3mn/$130.0mn purposefully exclude Toliara and meaningful rare earth upside, capturing only secured uranium contracted revenues and a tentative NdPr ramp. Rare earth and heavy mineral models remain at least 18 months over the horizon. Where others extrapolate, we apply a 20x FY26E EV/Sales multiple anchored in a macro regime shift—COP28 capacity commitments, runaway spot prices, and a reindustrializing U.S. nuclear industry. We view this as evidence of real, materially underappreciated qualitative upside optionality. This base-case scenario, coupled with net cash margin of safety, implies 131% equity upside from current levels at a historically lean multiple. We acknowledge rare earth execution risk and uranium price volatility, yet the risk skew remains heavily tilted toward an outsized re-rating as the Street converges on an irrefutable demand reality.

## Rare Earths Inflection
We believe UUUU’s Pinyon Plain project has a structural cost advantage that redefines the US uranium