Shopify: Structural Growth Premium from Global Payments and POS Expansion

Initiate SHOP at Strong Buy with a $157 PT. Shopify offers a multi-product commerce platform facilitating businesses to establish, equip, manage, and market digital/physical stores on any channel.

Underneath a narrative of e-commerce maturity, Shopify has quietly been transforming its infrastructure and capabilities, priming a next leg of growth not fully appreciated by the market. Strong international momentum, anchored by Shopify Payments rapid global expansion and Shop App near doubling of GMV, continues to drive y/y revenue growth well ahead of macro e-commerce trends and allows us to model $13.3bn in FY26E revenue vs consensus and underpins our confidence in 20%+ topline gains.

This elevated trajectory supports our 15.0x forward EV/S multiple, below SHOP's historical median but justified by unusually durable penetration gains across enterprise, POS, and B2B expansion, each incremental levers of revenue resiliency into cyclical downturns.

High velocity gains in European and enterprise channels coupled with merchant solutions margin leverage ensure SHOP's growth multiple is more than just optimism, but rather a product of fundamental drivers of consistent outperformance, protecting SHOP from macro headwinds experienced by tech peers.

Regulatory risk (e.g., China de-minimis adjustments) remain marginal given 1% GMV exposure and Shopify's ability to manage fee inflation.

49% equity upside at our 1.5-yr horizon and annualized return approaching 30%, the R/R profile stands out in global software, warranting strong conviction at current levels.

## Shopify: Underappreciated Enterprise and B2B Channel Penetration Sets the Stage for Multi-Year Growth Outperformance