3M Faces Imminent Multiple Compression: Sell Rating at $110 Target

We start on MMM at Sell / $110 PT. From safety and industrial to healthcare, transportation, and

consumer products, 3M is one of the most diversified technology conglomerates on the planet, impacting almost every aspect of the global economy from St. Paul to Shanghai. Unfortunately, that leaves the company little escape when industrial demand and financial conditions shift. Even as 3M continues to surprise Street EBITDA estimates (companies now guide $7.45B in FY26E, >$400MM above consensus), the company remains at a crossroads more defined by capital markets conditions than the incremental self-help that continues to surface. The 12.8x EV/EBITDA multiple sits well above its peer median and longer-term history, and is only defended by hopes of a soft landing and imminent macro inflection. 'Real' interest rates at multi-decade highs, kinetic quantitative tightening still unfolding, and marginally-contracted industrial activity means a major reset is underway across capital-intensive manufacturing; peers of 3M trade at a +6.5x multiple, and 3M's near-doubling premium is both unsustainable and un-replicable historically, with an average forward return of -16% at this level [10-K Based Recommendation]. While our forecasts factor in credible, active cost- eroding measures (Q1 margins up 220 bps) and more realistic tariff headwinds, the regime-shift of discount rates and opportunity cost of capital means we require a blended 9.0x FY26E EV/EBITDA, and thus derive an implied equity value 23% below spot. Worth noting: Faster-than-expected industrial rebound and/or dovish Fed pivot could mean a swift premium reversion, but that falls outside our