Marathon Digital Holdings: Levered to Post-Halving Bitcoin Cycle

We initiate with a Strong Buy / $44 PT. MARA operates one of the world’s most advanced vertically

integrated Bitcoin mining platforms, leveraging proprietary technology and low-cost energy infrastructure to deliver digital assets at scale via the US. Beneath the volatile exterior, MARA occupies a sweet spot of structural and cyclical drivers for a step-change in miner economics. More than 100k BTC cleared in the second quarter of 2025 began to reset base-case assumptions, yet consensus underwrites sub-80k BTC and underestimates the length and magnitude of post-halving multiple expansion. We see $1.36 billion in FY25E revenue (up 107% y/y, 43% above the Street) as energized Ohio / Texas wind assets, along with forthcoming flare-gas sites, deliver 60 EH/s of hash rate to keep network share elevated despite global difficulty hikes. Embedded in our base case is a self-inflicted above-consensus BTC price path of $105k / $130k FY25E / FY26E annual averages, already realized in spot markets and amplified by MARA’s ops edge: $0.04 / kWh energy costs and superior fee per transaction capture, driving 12% outperformance in BTC-denominated revenue. Our valuation embeds a blended FY26E P/S of 10.5x, balancing against downside the visibility of 0.58 BTC in treasury per share and factoring in the concentrated potency of macro tailwinds: (i) a window to imminent Fed easing, (ii) record spot ETF inflows, and (iii) the historic miner inflection 12–18 months post-halving. Regulatory overhang and bouts of network hash growth present headline risk to