Centrus Energy: Peak Premium, Limited Upside

We initiate coverage on LEU with a Strong Sell rating and $108 PT. Centrus Energy Corp. provides

enriched uranium and technical nuclear fuel solutions for commercial and government utilities and federal agencies globally. The company resides at the global geopolitical center of U.S. nuclear fuel security policy, driven by policy tailwinds, long-term DOE contracts, and a $700 million backlog supporting revenue through FY26E. However, the market’s paroxysmal enthusiasm for domestic uranium security investments has driven velocity in LEU shares well beyond core operating fundamentals. Despite our above-consensus FY26E $505 million revenue mix backed by straightforward backlog math, accelerated DOE funding, and favorable SWU pricing dynamics, we see the prevailing 9.5x EV/Sales structural overshoot versus our 3.25x EV/Sales justified forward multiple as government contracts offer visibility but deter little incremental upside beyond what is already baked into prevailing price levels. The implied $1.84 billion equity value forecasts 36 percent downside, even factoring in a plausible national security premium. We call out near-term catalysts ranging from backlog conversion to incremental government commissioning as well as telegraphed and expressively embedded mechanistically in our already constructive top-line view. Risks around policy inflections, Russia withdrawing from global enrichment, or continued nuclear fuel supply inelasticities deserve respect, but we see investor optimism as long-standing such that it occludes what we assert is a problematic next twelve-month cash burn profile, governance red flags evidenced by recent insider selling, and shares now near historical peak valuation multiples. With risk skewed to the downside and limited asymmetry preserved, we see more compelling R/R opportunities