Intrepid Potash: Sell Due to Imminent Global Supply Surge

Initiating IPI with a Sell / $30 PT. Denver-based Intrepid Potash, Inc. is the only U.S. producer of

potash and specialty fertilizers across the agricultural, oilfield, and industrial segments. We find the durable domestic footprint & cyclical exposure enviable, but market misperceptions yield our edge: recent Street optimism on a modest pricing recovery (nearly 100% overlooked) is completely unbalanced for a forecasted global supply surge and sector return compression into '26 [ifastat.org; vietnamagriculture.nongnghiep.v]. Mgmt's straightforward forecast: stable volumes and good costs, has our top-line estimates 3.7% / 12.9% ahead of street in FY25E/26E on steady volumes 285–300k tons, realized pricing in the $352–355/t range. This outlook is challenged, however, by a nearly 19% global capacity spike thru 2028 (which sets a structural ceiling on IPI's pricing recovery), limiting capture of any upside from demand-driven pricing, even as a consolidated U.S. market should provide some support on absolute pricing [worldfertilizer.com]. We also see the prevailing multiple (1.58x EV/Sales) as a further point of vulnerability, opting for a forward 1.40x (discounted vs the operational rigor, but similar to the current multiple), given ongoing valuation upgrades from street in the face of industry headwinds, ag commodity price pressure & potential U.S. trade policy shocks to farmer affordability & input demand [choicesmagazine.org; spglobal.com]. A rock-solid balance sheet & oilfield services niche can insulate, but they can't outweigh an oversupplied market and precedent cautions material downside at current levels. A geopolitical curveball or meteoric ag rally would shift our framework, but we currently see the risk/reward skew negative.