Blackstone: Strong Buy on Durable Growth Blueprint

We start coverage of BX at Strong Buy/$234 PT. Blackstone Inc. is the global preeminent alternative

asset manager, with leadership across private equity, real estate, credit and hedge fund solutions serving global institutions and private wealth channels. Underneath this mature industry façade, we argue that Blackstone has quietly crafted the blueprint for the next era of durable, high-margin growth. Recent moderation in fee momentum and private-wealth channels (+40% YY to $11B, yet set to ease as advisors digest macro volatility) has anchored Street views to near-term realisations/AUM too high relative to our below Street outlook, with epsDiluted outlook of $4.60 in FY25E/$6.00 in FY26E. Our outlook factors in a less aggressive trajectory, with only 20% of the firm’s $6.4B carry store unlocking in FY25 before a steeper ramp in FY26, despite secular trends buttressing the demand outlook. However, with perpetual-capital strategies scaling and dry powder of $177B at a record high, Blackstone’s unmatched ability to capitalize on dislocations that others simply will not allows for a steep earnings ramp over 30% into FY26E. This is where the mispricing occurs, in our view. The 39.0x target multiple factors in not only these outsized long-term prospects, but also a fair understanding of macro risks—QT, sticky inflation, episodic geopolitical frictions—that remain to be fully appreciated by markets. We view Street discounting of liquidity headwinds and the episodic character ascribed to trade tensions as far too forgiving and structurally poised for upside optionality to those willing to underwrite through the cycle. We acknowledge the skew for