Albemarle's Lithium Reset: Strong Buy Amid Cyclical Downturn and Structural Rebirth

We initiate coverage on ALB at Strong Buy with a $125 price target. Albemarle Corporation is the

preeminent global supplier of specialty lithium compounds, bromine solutions, and catalysts used in next-generation batteries, basic industrial processes, and energy transition technologies. Underneath the fog of bearish sentiment that clouds the lithium sector, a resilient operating platform and disciplined execution have quietly laid the foundation for a cyclically charged rebound. The disconnect between sentiment and reality couldn't be starker: while the Street continues to extrapolate “lower for longer” pricing in lithium, ALB's multi-pronged ramp (including Kemerton and Meishan as well as utilization optimization at Salar and Qinzhou) has already put the company in position for MS-D% volume growth that will exceed consensus expectations for FY25 and FY26. Our top line forecast assumes a $9/kg LCE pricing deck, justified by robust contract coverage and management's demonstrated cost discipline, driving resiliency in profitability even if market pricing remains stuck in neutral. The Street's deep discount, at just 1.8x EV/Sales almost 50% below global materials peers, simply overlooks the imminent wave of supply-side rationalization, stabilizing macro backdrop, and pathway toward free cash flow breakeven by next year. We underwrite a blended 3.0x EV/Sales on FY26E, which corresponds to an implied 110% equity upside in our base case, and see no risk of further multiple compression unless the global EV adoption story collapses or contract renegotiations are derailed. In our view, the current valuation seems to imply a hard